“To a greater or lesser extent, coronavirus has spread throughout 54 or 55 countries in Africa, everywhere except Lesotho, leaving 1,800 confirmed deaths and involving significant lifestyle changes,” Soler Crespo writes in the article published on Africaye.org. Soler Crespo is a junior researcher with the Navarra Center for International Development at the University of Navarra.

“Despite being quick to implement measures, there has been a 60% growth in the number of cases in Africa and the World Health Organization (WHO) warns that Africa will be the next epicenter of the pandemic.”  However, around 50 African academics have issued a statement rejecting this prediction.

At the same time, Soler Crespo notes that the United Nations Economic Committee for Africa (UNECA) predicts that the best-case scenario will involves 300,000 deaths and over 122 million people infected, 10% of the total population across the continent. “The worst-case scenario, if no preventative measures are implemented, would be 100% infection and 3.3 million deaths”.

According to Soler Crespo, the two most likely scenarios range between 1.5 and 2.4 million deaths, depending on the degree of social distancing applied (from 75% to 45%).

“Nevertheless, not all countries would be affected equally,” he argues. “The coronavirus will evolve at different rates in the 55 countries that comprise the continent as a whole, some of which are more vulnerable than others."

Strengths and weaknesses in dealing with the pandemic

Soler Crespo holds that some factors indicate that Africa may be one step ahead of other parts of the world in dealing with the pandemic but that it is at a disadvantage in other respects. The strengths include the extensive experience of epidemics and infectious diseases; people are acutely aware of the impact of fatal viruses; there are a large number of NGOs working on the ground; most African countries were early adopters of prevention measures; and the population is the youngest in the world: the average age is 18, and only 3% are over 65.

As far as weaknesses are concerned, healthcare resources capable of dealing effectively with an epidemic are in short supply; there is high population densities in cities; limited access to water and sanitation, which makes it difficult to act on basic hygiene measures; and a precarious employment market, where people have no option but to go out to work every day.