In the image
National flags of the People’s Republic of China, Japan, and the Republic of Korea [Grok]
Japan, South Korea, and China have not had an easy relationship over the last century, but as economic development has reached each of the three countries opportunities for three-way economic and trade cooperation have opened up. China's assertiveness in the region has created some reluctance among its neighbors, but Trump's tough tariff policy may foster a rapprochement between Beijing, Tokyo, and Seoul.
On March 22, 2025, China, Japan, and South Korea agreed to advance trilateral economic and trade cooperation in response to “emerging challenges.” This is an alliance more important than ever due to the instability brought by Trump's tariffs. The first trilateral meeting in over five years between the trade ministers took place in Seoul between Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao, Japan’s Trade Minister Yoji Muto and their Korean counterpart, Ahn Duk-geun. All three ministers agreed on fastening the negotiations toward a free trade agreement (FTA) between the three nations, on which they have been working since 2012 without tangible results.
While these countries are major economic partners of the US, historical and territorial problems have complicated the relationship between them. This meeting took place before the announcement of new tariffs on what Trump has denominated as “the liberation day.”
On February 18, Donald Trump declared his intention to increase automobile tariffs on all US automobile imports. This plan was carried out on March 26 when he announced a 25% automobile tariff that would increase the cost of fully constructed cars, engines, transmissions, powertrain parts, and electrical components starting on April 2. That same day, Trump announced “reciprocal tariffs” on 57 countries.
Impact of Trump’s tariffs
Tariffs on auto parts will have a significant effect on South Korea’s automakers as they have a heavy reliance on imported parts in order to fully assemble the cars in the US. Korea was the fifth-largest automobile manufacturer in the world in 2023; with 15% of total exports, motor vehicles were Korea's second-largest export. This tariff would significantly interrupt the carefully established supply chains developed over decades to ensure just-in-time delivery and multi-region sourcing. Thus, this tariff will not only affect car manufacturers.
Japan’s economy has also been affected by Trump’s tariffs. Since Trump announced a “reciprocal tariff” of 24% on Japan, its stock market has turned volatile and the Japanese yen, which is usually stable, has appreciated sharply.
In 2023, 20% of Japan’s total exports were purchased by the US, making it its most significant export market, according to the Japanese government data. Moreover, the most strategically important industries in Japan are exposed to the United States market, not just the automotive sector, which accounted for almost 30% of its exports to the US in 2023. Automobile parts, mining and construction equipment and machine tools are among the other exposed industries. Japanese economically relevant small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) could also be affected negatively due to their connection to the multilateral companies with which they work.
Another victim of the reciprocal tariffs was China which was hit with an initial tariff of 34% on all imports, later raised to 145% after consecutive tariff retaliation by Beijing. An estimation by Goldman Sachs Researchdeclared that, if followed, the increase in tariff rate on Chinese goods will reduce the Chinese GDP by 2.6 percentage points, 2.2 of those happening in 2025.
Troubled past
The March trilateral meeting between the trade ministers of China, Japan, and South Korea was a significant event due to the animosities between these nations caused by their troubled history and their usual unwillingness to cooperate. The troubled past refers to the atrocities committed by the Empire of Japan on both China and Korea. Korea was colonized by Japan between 1910 to 1945, a period of time in which Japan attempted to destroy Korean culture with various measures like forbidding the use of the Korean language or demolishing part of one of its biggest symbols, the royal palace, Gyeongbokgung. Additionally, hundreds of thousands of Korean women were forced to become “comfort women,” meaning sexual slaves serving in military brothels.
China too suffered greatly at the hands of the Japanese, especially during the Second Sino-Japanese War, where Japan committed torture, forced labor, executions, and human experimentation. This is particularly shown in an event known as the Nanjing Massacre where it is estimated that a number of 200,000 to 300,000 people were killed.
Despite Japan’s adoption of a pacifist policy, this shared history remains an obstacle and the relations with Beijing and Seoul have been tense. This is also due to Japan’s unwillingness to apologize and acknowledge its war crimes and for the continuous visits of Japanese relevant figures to Tokyo's Yasukuni Shrine, which commemorates 14 wartime leaders convicted as war criminals.
Examples of cooperation
Although cooperation between these three nations is a complicated affair, there have been cases before. In the case of Japan and South Korea, Prime Minister Ishiba and President Yoon met in January 2025, at the APEC summit in Peru, and agreed on prioritizing cooperation between the US, Japan and South Korea in regard to North Korea’s nuclear program and its military relationship with Russia. Previously, they also met with Joe Biden in November 2024 for a trilateral summit.
In August 2024, the Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs also established a special office to celebrate its 60th anniversary and strengthen their bonds. Other events in 2025, like the Osaka-Kansai Expo and the upcoming APEC CEO Summit in Gyeongju, make room for further collaboration between them.
China and South Korea’s willingness to cooperate is demonstrated in their trade agreements. They signed a bilateral free-trade agreement in 2015 and, in 2020, they took part, along with other 13 Asia-Pacific countries, in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, which is the first free-trade agreement among the biggest Asian economies.
Despite these agreements, there are still hiccups in their relationship. The situation worsened after South Korea declared its intent to deploy an American anti-ballistic missile defense system in 2016, leading to an unofficial boycott of South Korean products by China. Another event that deteriorated their relationship was when South Korea followed the US export ban on advanced semiconductors to China.
Despite this worsening of the relationship, South Korea could try to move a little closer to China as reaction to the instability and internal division the country has lived since the failed effort to establish martial law by President Yoon. The recent victory of Lee Jae-myung, the candidate of the Democratic Party, in the presidential elections could encourage a better relationship with Beijing.
In regards to China and Japan, the relationship is marked by a dozen different cycles of freezing, followed by a period of closer relations. The closest era between both countries was the 80s, when Japan provided China with development assistance and foreign investment. Another cycle started in 2006, with the first term of Shinzo Abe as Prime Minister, who led multiple bilateral projects like a joint history initiative.
Another improvement of Sino-Japanese relations came after the first election of Donald Trump in 2017, when he imposed tariffs on Chinese products. Xi Jinping allegedly asked Abe for advice on trade matters with Trump.
Each cycle of closer relations usually began after China would have to deal with domestic issues like economic challenges or international issues like the trade war with the United States.
Push by the tariffs
These three countries are aware of the risks of Trump’s tariffs and unpredictability leading them to economic instability and geopolitical tensions. Despite their history, it is evident that these are deeply interconnected countries with space for further cooperation on trade, cultural exchanges or global security. While the United States is a very relevant ally for both South Korea and Japan, its change in leadership to a more protectionist one may cause them to reassess their trade partners and security alliances in the area, specially if China moderates its assertiveness in the region.
In conclusion, the tariffs imposed by Trump may foster these three nations, whose relations have been deeply shaped by its past interactions, to cooperate together in order to face the challenges and probable economic decline coming from these trade-restrictions. This might be the push they needed or just another failure in their establishment of a free-trade agreement.