A reignition of tensions
Prior to the initiation of Operation ‘Northern Arrows’ by Israel in September 2024, indications already suggested a transformation in the course of the conflict. From October 7, 2023, to August 18, 2024, the occurrence of violent incidents associated with the Israel-Hezbollah conflict varied between 150 and 250 per week, pointing to a consistent increase in intensity.
The rise in turmoil observed in September 2024 marked an unparalleled intensification of the Israel-Hezbollah conflict. In that month, Israel boosted its military engagements against Hezbollah, executing upwards of 1,700 strikes in Lebanon, which represented an increase exceeding 125% compared to the prior month. This escalation commenced on September 17 and 18, when numerous pagers and two-way radios utilized by Hezbollah members were detonated around Lebanon in a clandestine operation ascribed to Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency. The operation, while primarily aimed at Hezbollah members, inadvertently affected civilian regions, leading to nine deaths and close to 3,000 injuries. Among the injured were Hezbollah combatants and Iran’s ambassador to Lebanon, Mojtaba Amini, who lost an eye.
On September 23, Israel increased its military actions, conducting around 200 airstrikes across five Lebanese governorates. Israel asserted that the strikes were aimed at Hezbollah’s military infrastructure; however, the Lebanese Health Ministry indicated a notable number of civilian casualties. Labeled the deadliest toll for Lebanon in nearly two decades, there were 500 recorded fatalities and 1,600 wounded. In retaliation, Hezbollah launched multiple missile barrages into northern Israel the following day.
Nevertheless, an escalation in Hezbollah’s long-range attack capabilities was observed on September 25, when a missile strike was directed at the headquarters of Mossad, Israel's principal external intelligence agency, in proximity to Tel Aviv. Although Israeli air defense systems successfully intercepted the assault, this incident underscored Hezbollah’s readiness to direct its efforts towards Israel’s most populous city.
On September 28, Israel executed a substantial operation that culminated in the demise of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, alongside other high-ranking officials, including the commander of the group’s southern front. This attack constituted an important setback for Hezbollah’s leadership, resulting in the deaths of at least seven senior officers during the last week of September. The targeted assassinations are components of a sustained effort by Israel aimed at dismantling Hezbollah’s coup, resulting in the deaths of at least twenty-oneother senior commanders in Lebanon from October 2023 to September 22, 2024.
The situation further escalated on October 1, as Iran, Hezbollah’s major ally, launched around 180 ballistic missiles targeting Tel Aviv, most of which were successfully intercepted by the ‘Iron Dome’ and ‘David’s Sling’ air defense systems of Israel reinforced by United States’ assets. Iran articulated that the assaults were a reaction to Israel’s deliberate eliminations of Hezbollah leader Nasrallah, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, and an Iranian military commander. The deployment of sophisticated weaponry signified a significant evolution in Tehran’s strategy when juxtaposed with its prior missile assaults in April.
Meanwhile, Israeli ground forces executed operations in a minimum of 32 towns and villages adjacent to Lebanon’s border, encompassing four districts from Tyre in the southwest, traversing Bint Jubayl in the center, to Marjayun and Hasbeiya in the southeast. In reaction, Hezbollah forces participated in direct armed confrontations or utilized rockets, anti-tank missiles, and mortars against Israeli troops in approximately 140 instances. These encounters are said to have led to the fatalities of more than 30 Israeli soldiers. On October 24, Hezbollah fired a barrage of some thirty rockets at Israeli troops who were obtaining logistical supplies in a Lebanese village, resulting in the deaths of five soldiers and injuries to nineteen others.
The Shia party-militia forces stepped up their assaults on Israel, utilizing rockets and drones to strike into central locations. An alarming growth occurred in mid-October with a drone strike targeting a training camp of the IDF’s Golani Brigade in the area of Binyamina, between Tel Aviv and Haifa; the attack resulted in the deaths of four Israeli soldiers and the wounding of 58 others. A separate occurrence involved a drone deployed by Hezbollah targeting the private residence of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the coastal city of Caesarea.
Notwithstanding, Tel Aviv initiated a ground incursion in southern Lebanon and escalated its aerial bombardments. The IDF executed more than 2,500 aerial strikes, predominantly aimed at Hezbollah fortifications in southern Lebanon, the Bekaa Valley to the east, and the outskirts of Beirut. In October 2024, several high-ranking Hezbollah officials were murdered, including Hashem Safieddine, who was believed to be Nasrallah's successor, as well as the deputy commander of the elite ‘Radwan’ Force, Mustafa Ahmad Shahadi. Evacuation alerts were issued for multiple cities and villages, affecting about a quarter of Lebanon’s land area and displacing around 1.2 million individuals, as indicated by Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati. Since the onset of hostilities in October 2023, the fatalities resulting from Israeli attacks in Lebanon have neared 3,000, with one-third of them occurring in October 2024 alone.
Furthermore, on November 24, Hezbollah threw approximately 250 projectiles into Israel, as a reaction to an Israeli strike launched on Beirut the previous day with the stated intention of eliminating Mohammad Haidar, a prominent Hezbollah military commander, but that culminated in the tragic loss of at least 29 lives. This recent aerial assault is regarded as one of the most significant operations Hezbollah has conducted against Israel since the previous year, showing solidarity with Hamas in Gaza. The assault by the militia group resulted in at least six people sustaining injuries, accompanied by images of vehicles consumed by flames in central Israel.
Despite possessing standoff weapons capable of reaching the entirety of Israeli territory for over a decade, Hezbollah exhibited a notable restraint in their use. Instead, it chose to engage in more measured retaliatory actions, including increased short-range rocket fire or the use of anti-tank guided missiles (ATGMs) directed at northern Israel in reaction to their deep strikes. This strategic decision can be attributed to a confluence of elements like the effectiveness of Israel’s air defense mechanisms, or Israel’s deterrence initiatives. Hence, Hezbollah has sustained a comparatively minimal rate of rocket fire relative to its projected capability of exceeding 1,500 rockets per day and its total frequency of attacks is far less than that of Israel since the beginning of Operation ‘Northern Arrows.’
During the length of the conflict, around 3,768 Lebanese citizens have allegedly been killed and 15,699 injured. According to reports, 44 soldiers and 48 civilians were killed on the Israeli side during the sixth incursion into Lebanon in 50 years. As a result of the extreme levels of casualties and the damage done to national vital and civilian infrastructure, both parties agreed to move forward and agree on a ceasefire.
The ceasefire deal
The 60-day ceasefire commenced on November 27, 2024, aiming to alleviate civilian suffering in Lebanon and has persisted despite ongoing hostilities and mutual allegations of breaches. The ceasefire agreement, based on the UN Resolution 1701 from 2006, incorporates numerous essential modifications that substantially transform the peacekeeping dynamics in southern Lebanon.
The agreement reinstates the prior monitoring mechanism, referred to as the ‘tripartite meetings,’ which functioned from 2006 to October 2023. The tripartite meeting previously concentrated exclusively on tactical surveillance of the Blue Line—the effective boundary between Israel and Lebanon—but they have now expanded their tasks. They should allow space for both Israel and Lebanon to report alleged violations of UNSCR 1701 and will specifically underscore the disarmament of Hezbollah and the prevention of its rearmament. These sessions were organized and presided over by the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) and consisted of routine discussions between representatives of the Lebanese and Israeli armies. While UNIFIL continues to host monitoring meetings, it no longer chairs them, and many of its traditional responsibilities have been transferred to the United States and France, marking a significant shift in peacekeeping authority in the region.
Furthermore, the most remarkable innovation is the formation of the Military Technical Committee for Lebanon(MTC4L) as part of the implementation of resolution 1701. The MTC4L includes eight NATO member states, such as the United States, United Kingdom, Italy, France, and Germany. This development signifies a substantial departure from prior UN-centric methodologies. The MTC4L has been assigned to facilitate the deployment of 10,000 Lebanese soldiers to southern Lebanon, while also delivering essential technological support and training to the Lebanese Armed Forces. Additionally, the committee will oversee humanitarian aid distribution and manage the return of displaced persons. This engagement enhances and formalizes the degree of collaboration among various NATO states and the Lebanese Armed Forces, potentially strengthening their connection to the achievement of the ceasefire accord.
The United States and France have taken on unparalleled leadership positions within this new framework. The United States currently presides over the monitoring system and promotes indirect conversations between Israel and Lebanon concerning territory disputes along the Blue Line, assuming some key roles up to then performed by UNIFIL. France, in turn, has been appointed as a principal mediator, sustaining substantial engagement in both the MTC4L and oversight operations.
By means of this deal, Israel has attained multiple long-desired objectives. Notably, it has accomplished its historical objective of sidelining UNIFIL and drawing other Western nations in southern Lebanon more profoundly. In addition, Israel secured a vital US ‘letter of guarantee’ endorsing possible military intervention should Hezbollah bolster its stance and fail to honor the terms of the ceasefire. The text, although this is not formally included in the accord, grants Israel unparalleled operational autonomy in Lebanon and the advantage of an exit option should the existing arrangements become unsatisfactory.
Challenges and future implications
As of now, the ceasefire remains in place as it was extended on January 26 and then on February 11. Nonetheless, Netanyahu has requested to keep extending the deadline for the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Lebanese territory until February 28. In response, Lebanon is accusing Israel of extending the agreement as an excuse to keep their troops and weapons in southern Lebanon, avoiding complete action. Moreover, Israel has kept targeting Hezbollah sporadically in the territory north of the Litani River and Hezbollah has failed in retreating from the southern end of Lebanon, one of the many points to be met in the agreement.
At the time of this writing, the future of the ceasefire looks murky; the deadline to complete a full withdrawal from Lebanon has been reached; while it has redeployed the bulk of its forces south of the Blue Line but, the IDF still holds five ‘strategic’ hilltops within Lebanon under the argument that the Lebanese Armed Forces has not yet completed the deployment agreed at the moment of the ceasefire.
It is vital to remember that the ceasefire is not a peace deal, therefore it will only be an effective containment measure in the short term and it is extremely volatile to political changes in the international area. The structure of the ceasefire encounters significant hurdles that may affect its efficacy. The participation of multiple international stakeholders with intersecting duties generates the possibility of coordination challenges and conflicting chains of command. Additionally, the agreement’s substantial dependence on technical solutions, while eschewing open political discourse between the disputing parties, may constrain its long-term viability. Likewise, the extensive latitude of action afforded to Israel by the US guarantee may incite new clashes. However, perhaps most concerning is the risk of western member states becoming deeply entangled in a complex regional conflict without clear resolution mechanisms.
Even though the ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel was brokered by Joe Biden’s administration and the work of the US government envoy Amos Hochstein, Netanyahu pushed for the ceasefire due to Trump's victory in the 2024 presidential elections. Trump has declared multiple times that his administration wants to put an end to the conflict in Palestine and according to top Israeli government officials, he was expecting a ceasefire in Lebanon even before his inauguration. Hence, achieving a ceasefire with Hezbollah in Lebanon symbolises a remarkable achievement in slowly working towards a peace deal in the region and one less problem for the Trump administration. Now that Trump is in power the ceasefire is still in place, evidencing the political might that his administration conveys.
As the violence in the region seems poised to persist, it is imperative for the international community to maintain a vigilant stance and strive for a sustainable resolution that tackles the root causes of the conflict while safeguarding the security and stability of the territory at large. Nevertheless, the deep-seated animosity and competing national interests make a lasting peace agreement an arduous prospect.
