Detalle Publicación

Probabilistic load forecasting for Building Energy Models

Título de la revista: SENSORS
ISSN: 1424-8220
Volumen: 20
Número: 22
Páginas: 6525
Fecha de publicación: 2020
In the current energy context of intelligent buildings and smart grids, the use of load forecasting to predict future building energy performance is becoming increasingly relevant. The prediction accuracy is directly influenced by input uncertainties such as the weather forecast, and its impact must be considered. Traditional load forecasting provides a single expected value for the predicted load and cannot properly incorporate the effect of these uncertainties. This research presents a methodology that calculates the probabilistic load forecast while accounting for the inherent uncertainty in forecast weather data. In the recent years, the probabilistic load forecasting approach has increased in importance in the literature but it is mostly focused on black-box models which do not allow performance evaluation of specific components of envelope, HVAC systems, etc. This research fills this gap using a white-box model, a building energy model (BEM) developed in EnergyPlus, to provide the probabilistic load forecast. Through a Gaussian kernel density estimation (KDE), the procedure converts the point load forecast provided by the BEM into a probabilistic load forecast based on historical data, which is provided by the building¿s indoor and outdoor monitoring system. An hourly map of the uncertainty of the load forecast due to the weather forecast is generated with different prediction intervals. The map provides an overview of different prediction intervals for each hour, along