Disasters are complex phenomena, by diverse nature and whose management is complicated. An efficient analysis of potential impacts that may result as consequence of a disaster has to be conducted to improve the preparation and response in face of future events

The proper functioning of critical infrastructures is crucial to societal well-being. However, critical infrastructures are not isolated, but instead are tightly coupled, creating a complex system of interconnected infrastructures. Dependencies between critical infrastructures can cause a failure to propagate from one critical infrastructure to other critical infrastructures, aggravating and prolonging the societal impact. For this reason, critical infrastructure operators must understand the complexity of critical infrastructures and the effects of critical infrastructure dependencies. However, a major problem is posed by the fact that detailed information about critical infrastructure dependencies is highly sensitive and is usually not publicly available. Moreover, except for a small number of holistic and dynamic research efforts, studies are limited to a few critical infrastructures and generally do not consider timedependent behavior. This paper analyzes how a failed critical infrastructure that cannot deliver products and services impacts other critical infrastructures, and how a critical infrastructure is affected when another critical infrastructure fails. The approach involves a holistic analysis involving multiple critical infrastructures while incorporating a dynamic perspective based on the time period that a critical infrastructure is non-operational and how the impacts evolve over time. This holistic approach, which draws on the results of a survey of critical infrastructure experts from several countries, is intended to assist critical infrastructure operators in preparing for future crises. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The dependency of society on the proper functioning of critical infrastructures (CIs) has been highlighted in recent natural disasters. CIs set up complex and interconnected systems and consequently a failure in one CI can spread to other dependent sectors. This represents a further complication in the response phase of a crisis, increasing the impact of natural disasters and seriously affecting the welfare of society. The aim of this paper is to illustrate the important role that CIs have on the propagation of the impact of a crisis. For that reason, a simulation model that represents the propagation, among interdependent CIs, of the effects of a storm on a region has been developed. This simulation model has a pedagogical purpose in which the effects of applying different crisis management policies can be simulated. This type of simulation models can represent different crisis scenarios. Therefore, simulation models can be used by managers allowing them to identify good practices and areas of improvement in face of future events.

While crises may appear to be event-driven, post-mortem accounts often identify factors that accumulate over time and increase the likelihood of failure. These factors are particularly difficult to anticipate when multiple organizations are involved in crisis preparation and event detection. Through the development of a systems-based model of crisis management, we learned that knowledge sharing can be accelerated or inhibited by the development of trust among organizations through the management of events. Is it possible to operationalize this finding? This hypothesis is being integrated into our current research in progress, a multi-national Community of Practice in disaster management.

Recientes desastres naturales han puesto de relieve la dependencia de la sociedad en el correcto funcionamiento de las infraestructuras críticas (ICs). Las ICs forman sistemas complejos e interconectados por lo que un fallo en una IC puede propagarse a otros sectores que dependan de ella. Ello supone una complicación añadida en la fase de respuesta de una crisis, aumentando el impacto y afectando seriamente al bienestar de la sociedad. El objetivo de este trabajo es ilustrar el importante papel que las interdependencias entre ICs tienen sobre el impacto global de una crisis causada por un desastre natural. Para ello, se ha desarrollado un modelo de simulación que representa los efectos de una fuerte tormenta sobre una isla con ICs interdependientes. El modelo de simulación desarrollado es un modelo de carácter pedagógico en el que se pueden simular los efectos de aplicar distintas políticas de gestión de crisis. Este tipo de modelos de simulación pueden representar escenarios de crisis diferentes por lo que pueden ser usados por gestores de crisis permitiéndoles identificar buenas prácticas y áreas de mejora ante futuros eventos. Palabras clave: Gestión de crisis, evaluación de impactos, infraestructura crítica, interdependencias, desastre natural.

The proper functioning of critical infrastructures (CIs) is vital for society¿s welfare. A disruption in one of them may lead to a crisis that affects not only the CI where the triggering event occurs but also the whole society. Therefore, it is fundamental to increase the whole system¿s resilience level. This paper defines resilience as the capacity of a system to prevent a crisis occurrence, to reduce the consequences from failure, and to recover rapidly and efficiently. Although there is much information about the definition of resilience, literature still lacks to provide a detailed holistic prescription about what activities should be carried out to improve the resilience level of the CIs and the society as a whole. This paper defines twelve policies that help to enhance the resilience level of all the stakeholders involved in crisis management, using information gathered from experts and examining several case studies.

The severe consequences of a Critical Infrastructure (Cl) crisis demand continued research directed toward proactive and reactive management strategies. Despite the best efforts of governments and communities, the diversity of stakeholders, conflicting demands for resources, and a lack of trust among organizations create complexities that limit the effectiveness of the response. This paper identifies four specific problems that appear to reoccur when Us are challenged: heterogeneity, multiple and inconsistent boundaries, resilience building and knowledge transfer and sharing. A combination of collaborative modeling and software simulation methodologies is proposed in order to identify the interrelationships among diverse stakeholders when managing the preparation for and reaction to a Cl crisis. This approach allows experts to work together and share experiences through the modeling process which can lead them to a better understanding of how other organizations work and integrate different perspectives. In addition, simulation models enable domain experts to understand the consequences of certain policies in the short and long terms, thus improving the crisis managers' knowledge for future crisis situations. This paper presents a practical case of a hypothetical crisis in the Cl sector and the approach used in order to deal with the four problems identified above. (C) 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A major industrial accident is an unpredictable event which triggers a disruption in a Critical Infrastructure (CI). This disruption can spread through other sectors, affecting not only the CI where the triggering event takes place but the whole society as well. In the case of major industrial accidents, system resilience consists of both the resilience of the CI (internal resilience) and resilience of society (external resilience). Resilience is the system¿s ability to reduce the probability of failure, the consequences from failure and the response and recovery time. However, little is known about how to achieve a high resilience level. In this paper, using the information gathered from experts and examining several major industrial accidents, we derive twelve policies that enhance the system¿s resilience level. The definitions of these policies are clarified through real case examples where the consequences of their use or lack of use are explained.

Recent natural disasters have highlighted society¿s dependency on the correct functioning of critical infrastructures (CIs). The existing interdependencies among CIs complicate matters further, since a failure in a CI can spread through cascading effects to other infrastructures or sectors. Thus society's welfare becomes severely affected, complicating emergency response and increasing the total impact of natural disasters. The aim of this paper is to illustrate the important role that affected CIs have on the overall impact of a natural disaster. We have developed a simulation model that represents a huge storm affecting the energy system, transport and food CIs on a small island. Through this simulation model we can show the effects associated with CIs and the effects of applying crisis management policies.

Crisis management needs intensive cooperation of a significant amount of stakeholders. These stakeholders need to cooperate during the critical peak of crisis, and also during crisis preparation and long term recovery phases. In addition, agents have to learn from each other and from previous events. However, they have different perspectives based on their backgrounds, previous experiences and interests. Collaborative modelling methodologies can help on this knowledge gathering and integration process. This paper presents Group Model Building collaborative methodology and its use on a crisis management research project, where a set of international and multidisciplinary domain experts discussed and contributed to three simulation models development. Through several exercises experts shared and integrated their perspectives, which were initially fragmented. Domain experts also took part in models validation. Resulting models constitute a more holistic, integrated and agreed visualization of crises than the ones each agent had at the beginning of the modelling process.